01 October, 2016

Verdict: Burnley 1-1 Arsenal

Burnley have traditionally made life tough for this weekend's opponents at Turf Moor over the years and seem unlikely to start rolling over for Arsene Wenger's in-form side now. Wenger claimed that his team are firing on "full power" following the comfortable Champions League win in midweek and quite rightly singled out Theo Walcott for praise in light of his excellent start to the season.
The much-maligned England man seems to be playing fearless football again and he's arguably been the brightest spark in Arsenal's high-quality interplay between himself, Alexis Sanchez and Mesut Ozil. Alex Iwobi continues to grow in stature on the opposite flank and it's becoming increasingly hard to see how even a fully-fit Olivier Giroud comes back into Wenger's 'Plan A'. Defensively, the Gunners also look pretty solid, keeping clean sheets in their last three games and not conceding more than a single goal in any match since their opening-day disaster at home to Liverpool. A fourth clean sheet on the spin can be backed at even money if you shop around, but I'm inclined to feel there's a reasonable chance of an upset here. History tells us that Wenger's outfit are at their most vulnerable when things appear to be going swimmingly and it doesn't take the greatest imagination in the world to picture a scenario in which Burnley, fired up by a full house in the final match of the weekend, set about their visitors with some strong tackles and no-nonsense treatment. You only have to look at Monday night's victory over Watford to see how Sean Dyche is going to play things and for all the experience and flair in the away ranks, this could become more attritional than they'd ideally care for on the back of a European fixture in midweek. If that's the case then the Clarets are no 8/1 shots to gain back-to-back wins. Sam Vokes, in for the suspended Andre Gray, is the ideal battering ram to give Laurent Koscielny a hard time and in Steven Defour the hosts appear to have a gem of a player who could become a household name this season. The midfielder opened his Burnley account in the 1-1 draw with Hull but his delivery from wide areas and set-pieces is his real asset. He put it on a plate for Monday's goalscorers, Jeff Hendrick and Michael Keane, and the latter could be a player again at huge prices in the goalscorer markets (40/1 first, 16/1 any time). However, I'm going to rein it in slightly and take a chance on the buoyant hosts, with the double chance concession offering odds in excess of 2/1 generally.
Opta facts:
  • Burnley are winless in seven league games against the Gunners (D3 L4), losing each of the last three in the Premier League.
  • The Clarets have netted just two goals in total in their last six league clashes with Arsenal, failing to score in four of those games.
  • The last three league meetings between the two sides at Turf Moor have produced a total of just three goals (0-0, 1-1 and most recently, 0-1).
  • Alexis Sanchez has been involved in four goals in three appearances against the Clarets in all competitions, scoring three and assisting one

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